Although Xiaolei had already predicted that Huawei may bring a large-scale update of the Hongmeng system in June, Huawei’s speed and determination clearly exceeded Xiaolei’s expectations.
How much do we expect from Huawei’s Hongmeng? I look forward to the announcement of this press conference that was even issued by Xinhua News Agency, and what Huawei did was just renamed Huawei EMUI Weibo to HarmonyOS.
According to Xinhua News Agency: Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. announced on the 25th that it plans to formally hold a Hongmeng product launch event on June 2. It is expected that the Hongmeng operating system, which was previously only used for smart screens, wearable devices and other products, will be available in more product categories. Used on.
Huawei’s last stand
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For Huawei, the official launch of the Hongmeng mobile phone system can be called a last resort, a battle that can only be won but not lost.
At the just-concluded Google Developers Conference, Google officially removed Huawei from the Android 12 partner list released by Google. Although it had been expected before, now it has completely cut off some people’s minds and let Huawei Able to devote all resources to Hongmeng.
However, before that, Huawei had no expectations for Google. Under the high pressure of the US government, Google could not risk releasing Huawei. Although for Google, they did not want to impose this restriction. Before the ban was issued, Google once lobbied and suggested that the US government should not force them to cancel cooperation with Huawei, because it would “create a terrifying opponent.”
This proposal was obviously not adopted by the US government. They believe that as long as Huawei is completely blocked in both hardware and software, then Huawei’s mobile phone business can be completely put to death. Judging from the current status of Huawei’s mobile phones, it is indeed correct. Under the influence of chip shortages, Huawei’s shipments have dropped significantly, and its market share has also been occupied by other mobile phone brands.
According to research reports from related organizations, Huawei’s mobile phone shipments have fallen out of the top five. From the previous market dominance to Others, Huawei’s mobile phones are falling faster than Nokia in the past. For Huawei’s mobile phone business, it is not an exaggeration to describe it with one foot off the cliff, and it is even somewhat conservative.
Xiao Lei believes that the current Huawei mobile phone is suspended with two feet and only two hands are still climbing the edge of the cliff to describe it may be more appropriate. Two hands, one for the Chinese market, and the other for Hongmeng, no matter which hand is released, the rest will not be able to support the giant Huawei mobile phone.
Since there is no way to go, then open up a new path
Huawei’s idea is actually very simple and realistic. Since companies headed by the United States have completely sealed Huawei’s path forward, let’s reopen a new path, just like Google and Apple did back then, a brand-new system. Eco, a brand new Huawei.
As a system that spans Huawei’s multiple businesses and hardware, Hongmeng is actually equivalent to the future core of Huawei’s toC business. It is a rope that connects Huawei’s various businesses.
If we continue to use the previous analogy, Hongmeng is like the nerves in the hand. In the absence of Hongmeng, although the “muscles” everywhere are still alive, they can’t work hard together. Eventually they will only gradually atrophy, and there will be nerves. After the unified command, the power that can burst out may give Huawei a new lease of life.
However, Huawei’s Hongmeng still has a long way to go to succeed. The mobile phone Hongmeng system that is launched now has a core to connect the entire IoT ecosystem. This is why EMUI’s renamed HarmonyOS has attracted so much attention. , Because this is the core of the entire Hongmeng ecology.
Next, Huawei will rely on the meridians extended by the Hongmeng system to reintegrate all resources and integrate all product terminals into an ecosystem. It has to be said that even Apple and Android are only gradually exploring this road. What Huawei wants to do is to directly insert into the new track and take a new path.
Can Huawei succeed?
How can the Hongmeng system be considered successful?
At present, no one can say clearly how Hongmeng can be regarded as a success. After all, if the calculation is based on the system retention alone, after EMUI is replaced by HarmonyOS, Huawei will directly become the third operating system in market share, second only to Android and Apple. .
However, even so, it is difficult to determine whether Hongmeng will be able to withstand the pressure of the declining market share of the mobile phone market in the next few years and maintain the growth momentum. At least it is difficult for the current situation. The first is the problem of mobile phone chips. Although there is still a certain amount of chips in stock from the current shipment situation, Huawei will face a complete chip shortage until 2022 at the most, and mobile phone shipments will drop to a historical low.
On the other hand, some consumers may continue to support Huawei’s mobile phones out of feelings, but when the performance of Huawei’s mobile phones is completely behind the times, most consumers will rationally choose other brands. Moreover, Huawei’s own mobile phone shipments cannot support enough new user groups, and the old user groups will gradually replace other brands of mobile phones due to problems such as mobile phone freezes and damage.
If the outflow and inflow of mobile phone users cannot be balanced or increased, then HarmonyOS, the core of Hongmeng, will be the first to face the risk of losing the market, and the result is often fatal. At present, we can only rely on other mobile phone manufacturers to launch products equipped with or adapted to the Hongmeng system, so as to maintain a certain number of mobile terminals equipped with HarmonyOS and support the development of the Hongmeng system.
However, even if they are separated from Huawei, they have the glory of blood kinship. When faced with reporters’ inquiries, they may be more inclined to the Android system by expressing euphemistically. In fact, most people are not surprised by this response, because it is difficult not to guarantee that if a mobile phone manufacturer other than Huawei uses HarmonyOS, it will incur retaliation from the United States.
At least in a short period of time, only a small number of low-end small domestic brands of mobile phones will consider moving closer to Hongmeng. For example, Coolpad and other low-end models that use domestic Huben processors. It is considered a success to be able to launch an application compatible with the Hongmeng ecology within a period of time, and at least it will give the Hongmeng ecology the motivation to maintain it.
Finally, Yang Haisong, vice president of Huawei’s consumer business AI and smart full-scenario business department, once put forward a concept “16% life and death line” in an interview. Only Huawei’s Hongmeng terminal can achieve a market share of more than 16%. , If the final market share drops to 16%, then it’s not far from death.
Hongmeng is here, but the real challenges and difficulties for Huawei are only beginning now. If the previous R&D and testing processes were practiced behind closed doors, and no matter how they were trained, they would not have much impact on Huawei’s products. So now I have to stand up, take out my “kung fu” and make gestures with others, and see the truth under my hand.
However, at least in terms of the performance of the current Hongmeng system, the performance in IoT and other fields is quite gratifying, especially the seamless smart experience, which will make users’ daily lives more convenient. At least this is true for Android products. Temporarily impossible.
How Hongmeng will develop next, let us wait and see.