Under the suppression of instant messaging tools such as WeChat, operators’ revenue from voice and SMS services has shown a rapid shrinking trend. With the rapid advent of the 5G era, various informatization applications and products are bound to shine . Will voice and SMS in the future die out even when it is already a sunset business?
1. Traffic revenue dominates
According to a research report recently released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in the second quarter of 2020, my country’s mobile data traffic average rate was 4.3 yuan/GB, a year-on-year decrease of 23.25%; the average monthly mobile data usage by users was 9.52GB, a year-on-year increase of 33.8 %; the average monthly household expenditure for mobile communications was 47.8 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%.
According to calculations based on the above data, in the mobile communication business, the revenue contribution of traffic is 40.95 yuan/month, and the revenue contribution of other services such as voice and SMS is only 6.86 yuan/month; the revenue of traffic accounts for up to 85.6%, voice and Other business revenues such as SMS accounted for less than 15%.
In fact, the relevant data in 2018 and 2019 have already shown the fact that the revenue scale of voice and SMS continues to shrink. In 2018 and 2019, traffic revenue accounted for 73.6% and 75.1%, respectively. This figure has reached a high of 85.6% in the second quarter of this year.
2. Delisting of 2G delisting acceleration function machine
From a global perspective, my country’s 4G network is the best in the world in terms of coverage and network quality. Based on such network capabilities, combined with the large-scale popularization of smart phones and the rapid reduction of traffic tariffs, the scale of mobile Internet users in my country has achieved rapid expansion.
Driven by the regulatory new infrastructure strategy, 5G has entered a period of concentrated construction. Operators are under increasing pressure to maintain networks from 2G to 5G. As represented by China Unicom, it has already started 2G withdrawal from the network . At that time, China Unicom’s 2G network users must either switch to the network or switch from the network to smart phone users.
The main applications of feature phone users are voice and SMS. After the completion of the 2G network withdrawal, the users of 2G feature phones will disappear in a large area, which will inevitably be a large reduction in voice and SMS services. In fact, regardless of whether operators intend to force feature phone users to upgrade to smart phone users, the trend of technological development is also a huge driving force.
3. The decline in voice has been difficult to reverse
Since the operators have completed the transformation of traffic operation, the scale of voice business revenue has begun a slow decline. In recent years, the rate of decline in the revenue of voice services has been extremely alarming. Among them, there are not only WeChat and other substitutes, but also operators’ willingness to replace voice in pursuit of traffic.
Judging from the actual situation in 2018 and 2019, voice business volume and business revenue have fallen sharply. According to data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the decline in voice services since 2020 has remained basically unchanged. In terms of trends, there is no tendency to reverse at all.
Regardless of whether the voice business will eventually die, the undisputed fact is that its business volume and revenue contribution will continue to shrink. At that time, voice, as a once overlord application, will likely be reduced to an insignificant role. Voice as a tool for instant communication cannot withstand the attack of WeChat. This may be the meaning of the advancement of communication and information technology.
4. Can 5G new messages save SMS?
Although 5G network construction is in full swing, the lack of 5G applications is also a current fact. In order to accelerate the innovation and application of 5G services, the three major operators have jointly launched 5G new messaging services with well-known manufacturers such as Huawei and Samsung. What is the new news about 5G?
5G new news is to upgrade the original simple text information to rich media information including pictures, videos, text, etc. If new 5G messages are seen as an upgrade of SMS technology and applications, then the life of SMS has the possibility to continue. Even if the current application of 5G news is not widespread.
With WeChat in full swing and getting deeper and deeper into the daily lives of users, can new 5G news achieve the operators’ initial goals? This issue is definitely worthy of everyone’s attention and consideration. With the free WeChat app, what motivation do users have to spend money to pay for new 5G news?
Various logical speculations show that voice and SMS services may be replaced in the future, even if they will not completely die out. Although voice can exist as a side application for a long time, and SMS can also be used in the field of Internet of Things on a large scale, the era of its main business and revenue contribution has passed, and there is a high probability that it will never return.
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